Welcome to this edition of INSIGHTS, a newsletter by Reveal.
In this week’s edition:
TFG’s 18%+ share price drop despite sales growth
Shein’s average spend slips below R1,000 for the first time since 2023
Market share shuffle amongst some of SA’s fashion players
TRENDING
The squeeze on SA’s style
The Foschini Group’s (TFG) share price took a more than 18% knock last week after the retailer warned that earnings would drop 20–25% for the half-year. But was the market’s reaction fair?
The group still grew sales 12.7% to R29.2 billion, boosted by its White Stuff acquisition and strong online performance through Bash. Even in South Africa, sales climbed 5.3% despite tough conditions.
So while profits are under pressure, the question remains: is TFG’s squeeze unique, or part of a wider retail story playing out across South Africa?
We take a look at how they compare to other retailers over the last 12 months.
Market Share
Our data reveals that TFG have managed to grow their market share over the last 12 months from 14.63% up to 16.16%. In comparison, the likes of H&M and Truworths have remained consistent in their market share.
But it’s the consistent rise in market share gains of Shein that has been giving local retailers a headache.
Are they spending?
Perhaps the biggest concern across the retail space is that average spending has gone down over the last 6 months.
Shein, which traditionally has been very strong in capturing more than double the industry average in average transaction value, has seen this slip over the last few months to under R1’000. That’s more than 30% down from their peak in Nov 2022 and Apr 2023.
But it’s not limited to Shein, TFG has seen average spend go down over the last 6 months.
Comparing the last three halves and the Y-o-Y monthly transaction value change, it’s clear that the last 6 months have not been great as far as customer spend is concerned.
If TFG’s share price correction is any indication, investors might soon price in similar margin pressure across the sector.
But one thing seems certain: apparel retail in South Africa is taking strain.
READER SENTIMENT POLL: Do you think TFG’s share price drop was justified?
BITES
Clicks Expands Its Reach
Clicks delivered a strong 2025, with turnover up 5.3% and profit up 14.1% to R3.24 billion. The retailer added 55 stores and 60 pharmacies this year and is targeting 1,200 outlets as it continues to expand its health and beauty footprint.
ChatGPT Goes Shopping
Walmart’s new partnership with OpenAI lets ChatGPT’s 700 million weekly users shop directly through conversations. It’s the first large-scale test of AI-driven retail, turning chat into checkout.
Spar Health Grows Its Network
Spar Health has acquired the Aptekor Group, expanding its pharmacy supply chain and support services. The move deepens Spar’s footprint in healthcare and accelerates its plan to grow Pharmacy at Spar locations from 125 to 250 stores over the next three years.
GO DEEPER
Want Deeper Insights in Your Industry?
Reveal is transforming how businesses understand and act on consumer behaviour through powerful, transaction-based insights.
By analysing billions of rands in real-world spend data from over 350,000 South Africans, Reveal uncovers the patterns, shifts, and opportunities that traditional research often misses.
Our intuitive dashboards and custom analytics empower retailers, brands, and agencies to make faster, data-driven decisions. Whether it’s
✅ spotting category winners,
✅ identifying high-value customers, or
✅ tracking real-time market changes.
For anyone needing a sharper lens on how South Africans actually shop, Reveal is the edge.
Keen to learn more? Book a meeting with data consultants.
DISCLAIMER: This document is solely for information purposes. It does not purport to be comprehensive. Its content may rely on third-party sources that have not been independently verified. Some of the information contained in this document may contain projections, opinions or other forward-looking statements about future events or future financial performance. These statements are only predictions and numerous important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those contained in this document. None of Reveal, its affiliates, advisors, directors, officers and/or employees shall be responsible, and disclaim all liability, for any loss, damage (whether direct, indirect, special or consequential) and/or expense of any nature whatsoever, which may be suffered as a result of, or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to, the use of, or reliance upon any information contained in this document. Reveal provides no representation or warranty, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness or correctness of information contained in this document. Reveal shall have no liability for any information contained herein, or for any omissions or errors. Reveal does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. No information set out or referred to in this document shall form the basis of any contract. No information in this document is investment advice, an investment advertisement or an offer of securities. This document is protected by copyright. It is the property of Reveal. It may contain information that is confidential and therefore must not be disseminated, reproduced or used in whole or in part without prior written approval from Reveal. Any use must acknowledge Reveal as the source. No part of this document may be transmitted into any jurisdiction which may constitute a violation of relevant local securities laws.
